Professional Experience

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Microsoft Inc.

Principal Data And Applied Sciences Manager, Windows, Developers, and Experiences Engineering, 2021–to date

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• Leveraging data and analytics to help one billion plus Windows users accomplish more everyday.

• Partnering with Product Management, Software Engineering, Marketing, Data Engineering, User Research, Design, and Applied Data Scientists to foster a culture of data driven decision making.

• Coaching and growing a team of data scientists, and inspiring the team to deliver business impact through keen data insights.

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Marriott International Inc.

Director of Marketplace Analytics, 2019–to date

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• Created customer acquisition reference model and planning process for new initiatives, resulting in significantly more credible launch plans from the Loyalty Marketing and Finance departments.

• Led omni-channel instrumentation, measurements, and reporting for Eat Around Town initiative, resulting in more accurate, visible, granular, and timely omni-channel performance tracking.

• Evangelized machine learning, goal setting (OKRs), and customer discovery frameworks to internal startups, resulting in greater resource commitments from internal and external partners, and more targeted marketing campaigns.

• Embedded myself in a hotel for 3 days, identifying over $1 billion of potential revenue lift in analytics opportunities.

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Nike, Inc.

Director of Product Management, Advanced Analytics and Machine Learning, Oct 2018–2019

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• Servant leader for the “Demand Sensing Transformational Initiative”, the most important initiative in Nike Inc.’s digital transformation. Rated highly successful in leadership skills in a highly matrixed organization.

• Hired product team, created lean agile process, and built MVP specs for "Forecast Shield", a monitoring and observability software solution to bring stability, visibility, and continuous improvement to the forecasting function, which supports over $10 billion in annual purchases.

• Used customer-centric selling techniques to build relationships across a large, complex, and highly matrixed Fortune 500 company, persuading a 1,500 strong org to begin adopting machine learning, and automation.

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Cambridge Social Science Decision Lab Inc.

Technical Founder, 2013–2018

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• Built “automated statistician” enterprise software so business users of all skill levels can measure the lift of new initiatives using A/B tests.

• Communicated vision and developed patent-pending technology, resulting in a $2,000,000 seed round, and software development agreement for equity swap.

• Set company goals, agreed individual Objectives and Key Results, and led agile software development team, delivering MVP on time, and within budget.

• Deployed customer-centric selling techniques to manage hiring, and customer development process. Achieved a 75% job offer acceptance rate, and above average conversion metrics.

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Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Research Fellow, Department of Global Health and Population, 2011–2012

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• Led the introduction of applied game theory and causal inference to flagship doctoral seminar on health systems reform. Resulted in a Lecturer job offer (declined).

• Designed politically sensitive field experiment using pre-registration, sequentially partitioned hypotheses, and replicable and verifiable randomization. Implementing partner agreed to randomize audits for the first time.

• Demonstrated how problematic missing data is fundamentally a causal question, and how to diagnose it in randomized control trials.

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World Bank Group

Staff Economist, Development Economics Prospects Group, 2004–2006

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• Implemented state-of-the-art automated data systems and time series forecasting models. Resulted in more detailed, timely, and frequent reports, with a smaller team.

• Communicated World Bank forecasts and analytical reports. Invited to brief World Bank President, Chief Economist, and Executive Board. Presented findings at professional conferences.

• Created first interactive online version of a flagship report. Wrote proposal, got buy-in from all departmental stakeholders, and raised $40,000 in internal funds. Ranked “Outstanding/best practice” in annual performance evaluation.

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World Bank Group

Research Analyst, Development Economics Prospects Group, 2000–2003

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World Bank Group

Consultant, Development Economics Prospects Group, 2000–2003

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Other Professional Experience

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• Consultant, 3ie Replication Window 3: HIV Prevention, Int. Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie), 2014.

• Consultant, Development Impact Evaluation Initiative, World Bank Group, 2013.

• Peer Reviewer, Political Economy Analysis Toolkit, International Monetary Fund, 2013.

• Consultant, World Institute for Development and Economics Research, United Nations University, 2013.

• Intern, Office of the Assistant Sec. for Int. Affairs, U.S. Department of the Treasury, 1999.

• Intern, Government Relations Group, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, 1998.

• Trainee, European Commission, UnitA2: Middle East, Directorate General IB, 1997.

• Intern, J.P. Jenkins, Market Makers, City of London, 1995.

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Education

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• Ph.D. Political Methodology (causal inference), New York University, 2010. Completed in 4 years.

• M.A. International Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 1999. Graduated with distinction.

• B.A. Politics, Philosophy and Economics, Oxford University, 1996

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Publications

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Peer reviewed publications

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1. De La O, Ana L. and Pablo Fernández-Vázquez and Fernando Martel García (2023). Federal and state audits do not increase compliance with a grant program to improve municipal infrastructure: A pre-registered field experiment. Journal of Development Economics 162 (May). Replication data and code are available at Harvard Dataverse.

2. Martel García, F. (2016). Replication and the Manufacture of Scientific Inferences: A Formal Approach. International Studies Perspectives 17 (4), 408-425.

3. Martel García, F., and L. Wantchekon (2015). A graphical approximation to generalization: Definitions and diagrams. Journal of Globalization and Development 6 (1), 71-86.

4. Martel García, F. (2014). Democracy is good for the poor: A procedural replication of Ross (2006). International Studies Perspectives 1 (3). (This paper “is in the top 10% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.”, Altmetric, accessed 1/22/2018.) Replication data and code are available at Harvard Dataverse.

5. De La O, Ana L., and F. Martel García (2014). Do federal and state audits increase compliance with a grant program to improve municipal infrastructure (AUDIT study): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial. BMC Public Health 14 (912).

6. De La O, Ana L., and F. Martel García (2012). AUDIT study: To determine whether federal and state audits increase Mexican municipalities’ compliance with a federal grant program to improve municipal infrastructure. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register (ISRCTN22381841).

7. Martel García, F., and L. Wantchekon (2010). Theory, External Validity and Experimental Inference: Some Conjectures. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 628 (1), 132-147.

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Academic working papers

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1. Anastasopoulos, L. and and F. Martel García (2016). Do Kenyan Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? A Procedural Replication of Dupas (2011).

2. Martel García, F., and L. Wantchekon (2013). A Graphical Approximation to Generalization: Definitions and Diagrams. WIDER Working Paper WP/2013/082.

3. Martel García, F. (2013). Definition and Diagnosis of Problematic Attrition in Randomized Controlled Experiments.

4. Martel García, F. (2013). A Unified Approach to Generalized Causal Inference.

5. Martel García, F. (2012). Small, Slow, and Diminishing: The Effect of Democracy on the Under-five Mortality Rate.

6. De La O, Ana L., and F. Martel García (2011). Institutions, ‘Elite Capture’ and Welfare Inequality in Mexico.

7. De La O, Ana L., and F. Martel García (2011). How are Mayors Held Accountable Without Re-election? A Theoretical Primer.

8. Martel García, F. (2010). Democratic Compacts, Institutional Accountability, and Health Outcomes.

9. Martel García, F. (2010). Causal Inference in Time Series Cross Section: Process Matching.

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Patents

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1. Martel García, F., Methods, systems, and articles of manufacture for the management and identification of causal knowledge. U.S. Patent application US 15/037,190, filing date November 24, 2014.

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Professional reports

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1. Global Economic Prospects. World Bank. Contributor to six editions: 2001–2006.

2. Global Development Finance. World Bank. Contributor to six editions: 2001–2006.

3. Short-term Risk Monitoring Report. Financial Risk Committee and Executive Board, World Bank. Monthly global business cycle forecasts and analysis.

4. China Quarterly Update. World Bank China Office. Contributed quarterly forecast and analysis of China’s external economic environment. 2004–2006.

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Field Research and Data Collection

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1. Randomized controlled trial investigating the effect of federal and state level audits on municipal accountability. Fielded endline survey. 2011–2012.

2. Observational study investigating the social and institutional determinants of municipal infrastructure investment location choices. Trained and equipped Mexican auditors with GPS devices to collect location data for municipal infrastructure investment. 2011–2012.

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Awards and Honors

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• McCracken Fellowship, full tuition and stipend, New York University, 2006–2010.

• 4 Spot Awards of $300–$500 “recognizing and expressing appreciation for extraordinary efforts", World Bank, 2000–2005.

• Bologna Center Fellowship, half tuition, Johns Hopkins University, 1998–1999.

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Research Grants

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1. Research Grant, $5,000, Leitner Program in International and Comparative Political Economy, Yale University (with co-investigator).

2. Research Grant, $7,000, Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University (with co-investigator).

3. Summer Research Grant, $1,500, New York University, 2007–2009.

4. Travel Grant, $500, New York University, 2008.

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Conferences and Seminars

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Invited Academic Conferences

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1. Replication and the Manufacture of Scientific Inferences: A Formal Approach. Joint Statistical Meeting, Chicago, August 2, 2016.

2. Replication and the Manufacture of Scientific Inferences: A Formal Approach. 3ie Replication Consultation, District of Columbia, May 29, 2015.

3. Procedural Replication: Improving Research Practice. International Studies Association Annual Convention, Toronto, March 28, 2014.

4. A Solution to Generalized Causal Inference. X Meeting of the Experiments in Governance and Politics Research Network, Columbia University, New York November 23, 2013.

5. Testing Generalizable Theories with Social Experiments. UNU-WIDER Project Workshop on Experimental and Non-Experimental Methods in the Study of Government Performance, New York University, August 22-23, 2013.

6. Understanding and Diagnosing Problematic Attrition in Randomized Controlled Experiments. IX Meeting of the Experiments in Governance and Politics Research Network, University College London, May 31–June 1, 2013.

7. Identifying Causal Effects in Field Experiments with Attrition: A Graphical Approach. Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, April 11–14, 2013.

8. Understanding and Diagnosing Problematic Attrition in Randomized Controlled Experiments. Applied Statistics Workshop, Harvard University, Department of Government, February 20, 2013.

9. Small, Slow, and Diminishing: The Effect of Democracy on the Under-five Mortality Rate. Harvard University, Department of Government, September 18, 2012.

10. The Effect of Democracy on the Under-five Mortality Rate. Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Global Health and Population, April 25, 2012.

11. Democratic Political Order, Institutional Accountability, and Health Outcomes, Harvard University, Department of Government, February 27, 2012.

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Invited Professional Conferences

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1. Testing How External Audits Can Improve Service Delivery in Mexico. ieGovern Impact Evaluation for Public Sector Governance and Justice workshop, Dakar, Senegal, June 24–27, 2013.

2. Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Improve Policy. ieGovern Impact Evaluation for Public Sector Governance and Justice workshop, Dakar, Senegal, June 24–27, 2013.

3. Global Economic Risks and the Colombian Economy. Organized by the Colombian Exporters Association and La República newspaper. Bogota, Colombia, March 23, 2006.

4. APEC Study Centers Consortium Annual Meeting. Viña del Mar, Chile, May 27, 2004.

5. Making Trade Work for the Poor. Advanced Course for Government Employees. Georgetown University, Washington DC, June 7, 2004.

6. Second APEC Senior Officials Meeting. Pucón, Chile, May 25, 2004

7. XX General Assembly of Mexico’s National Agricultural Council. Mexico City, Mexico, June 2003.

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Professional Organizations

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• Member, Experiments in Governance and Politics Research Network, 2013–Present.

• Visiting Fellow, Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science, 2010–2013

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Data science software

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• R (Tidyverse), Python 3 (Pandas, Seaborn, Matplotlib, StatsModels, SciKit-Learn), STATA, MATA, SQL (basic), NetLogo (basic), Git, LaTeX, vscode, TargetProcess, JIRA, Confluence, XMind.